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The Future Makers - Inspiration from 2030

Rolf Jensen, Dream Company as

Gesti'n Magazine

Oct. 2005

With a time horizon of 25 years you get a good picture of the main drivers for business - not in some distant future, but now, today. Not the short term ones, for fashion and fads, but the real megatrends, the important ones. Since this is a short article, I will get to the point right away. We have three main drivers for the future of business:

The experience economy is the first. We are leaving the old economy, the industrial, the information age, gradually, but something new is happening. We are moving from appeals to the mind, to appeals to the heart. In the market place. When we buy mobile phones we take function for granted, we buy for style, brand and look, the signals it sends about us, the mobile phone is becoming a part of our self portrait. The same with our watch, all watches are precise today, we buy for the signals it sends. Function is taken for granted, we buy with our hearts, with our emotions.

Not all of us, but the rich do, and we are getting richer. In Europe, GDP grows 25-30% each ten years, in Latin America the economic growth rate is higher. This means that we can afford more than function. The big brands are a part of the experience economy. A brand adds an emotional value on top of the materialistic value. A small story. The better the story, the higher the price. A Rolex watch is more expensive than most other watches, not because it is more precise, but because of the signals it sends, because of the story it tells about its owner.

In management we have Value Based Management, VBM, management based on values, we have core values, we have mission statements, all words about leadership being something more than just giving orders and control. Management is becoming a part of the experience economy, not so much today, but soon.

These are all examples from the market place. If you want scientific information, go to World Value Survey.org. This survey concludes that most countries are heading towards post materialistic values.

The second driver is individualization. Moving from uniformity to diversity. The modern consumer says: "I want to be special", the old consumer said: "I want to be normal." The advantages of mass production has prevented this consumer trend from blooming. This is changing, however. With "soft tooling" car manufacturers can produce different cars on the same assembly line. Soon to reach a shop near you: "build-a-bear" you choose eyes, ears, colour and fur, name - and you get a birth certificate. Your own special teddy bear. It is a huge success in many countries already. It illustrates this trend very clearly. We want personalized products, not mass produced ones.

The next technological breakthrough is on its way, the FAB - or rapid prototyping. If you have a computer that can draw your product in 3D, a lamp, a cup, then the FAB will "print" it in three dimensions. Your personal product, designed by your self. It is too expensive for private use at the moment, but the prediction is 1000 US dollars in 10 years time. In the meantime you can order your FAB products on line by e-mail. It is happening right now.

The last megatrend is the "amaproffs", amateurs working professionally, but often without thinking about profit. One example is Linux, the open source software, it may soon compete successfully with even Microsoft. Another example: e-bay, the on line auction "house". Competing successfully with the brick and mortar auction houses. And the thousands of bloggers competing with the newspapers. They will change the market place in a future not too far away.

E-mail: rj@dreamcompany.dk