We help your company enter the experience economy

Time Travellers Tale. Inspiration from 2030 for today

Synopsis

Translation by Mark Hebsgaard

Introduction

Rolf Jensen has been on a voyage to 2030; he chose to return to the present in order to write a book about his experiences there. He did, however, depart packing a "Travel Guide to the Future." This guide contains all the traces of the future that we can discern right here in our present in the market place and in attitude surveys.

Therefore, each chapter contains two sections; one containing traces of the future the trends and figures that point to the future, as well as the travelogue detailing his visit to 2030, a colorful vista of day-to-day life in the future.

The book's conclusions are not directed at the future; future studies are for use in the here and now for inspiring important decisions in the present. Then why the extended time horizon? Because this paves the way for genuine, innovative thinking, raising the creative bar and allowing companies to think outside the box. The commonplace time horizon for strategy planning - 3 to 5 years - easily becomes too static, insisting that you merely improve the status quo, keep on doing the same, just better. So it is beneficial to soar in a helicopter now and again. This is what happens when you travel time, venturing 25 years hence. You have the opportunity of becoming a Magi of the Future, to join the ranks of those actually shaping the future. And just one other thing: the short-term myopia involves the risk that the company overlooks the crucial trends - they always move surely but slowly; like the trends of the experience economy that move like a glacier; surely, but only just a little bit every year.

The book presents the company with a number of challenges. It asks the question: In your company, who are Magi of the Future, who actually shapes the future, who are the agents of change and where are they positioned in the company? It is no certainty that they are to be found in Research & Development or in management. The book also throws down another gauntlet, asking how the company pictures its future market. The book itself contains many detailed accounts of future markets.

The book covers a wide range. The shape of attitudes to come, changes in our values, what we hold most important in our lives, new technology, management in the future, organization and globalization. Also, there are chapters on health, new parameters in company accounting and our spiritual future.

Rolf Jensen is not alone. We undertook the voyage to 2030 together with the members of the Time Travellers Clubs in London, Copenhagen and Vilnius - more than 30 companies. We gathered many new tendencies, fresh inspiration. All collected in the book Magi of the Future.

Main topics

From information to experience The general sway in attitudes in the affluent part of the world is moving towards postmaterialism, from the focus on making daily ends meet characteristic of the scarcity society to the experience economy's emphasis on quality of life. This is a conclusion based on international value surveys, especially those prepared by the World Value Society. Observations from today's market place clearly point in the same direction. Consumers are increasingly willing to pay a premium to get more than mere function. The product endowed with the best story can be sold at a higher price than the one that comes with a negligible story, or none at all. This is gradually becoming true of all markets, from bottled water and watches to sports equipment and comestibles. The book provides an ample array of examples from the market place and the author's own impressions from his visit to the future's experience economy are vividly described. It is even suggested that the traditional gauges for material prosperity are replaced by a happiness index, an objective measure of welfare and well-being.

From uniformity to multiplicity

The other widespread shift in attitudes regards individualization, from uniformity to multiplicity. This consumer no longer says: "I am normal;" instead, the slogan is: "I am special." From standard products to personalized products. We can begin to discern the end of the era of mass production - the latter belonged to the logic of the 20th century. Thus has been the transformation in attitudes. The Nordic countries are among the farthest advanced; this is where demand for personalized products first emerged. Once again, many observations from the market place point in this direction, towards personalized rather than standardized products. Among international examples one could mention Nike ID that lets you co-design your own running shoes and bags, as well as build-a-bear where you fashion a teddy bear all your own, complete with fur, eyes, stuffing, name, and birthdate - just as you want it.

Technology will gradually make all sorts of personalized products possible. This is true of the concept of "soft tooling" in assembly lines; it is true of scanning optimum sartorial fit; and it is true of products entirely designed by you. The 3D-printer lets you "print" your own products, designed by you, too. It is already on its way. Design a beautiful vase for your beloved; then simply print it and adorn it with flowers. You become your own personal designer. Formerly, these contraptions were only for industrial use, called rapid prototyping; the same device for the consumer market is called a FAB. In less than 10 years, it will have entered private homes. A technological revolution comparable that of the personal computer, translated from 2D into 3D. In the section covering the time journey to 2030 we visit several retail outlets, from supermarkets and apparel to electronics.

The organization and management in the future

Naturally, individualization and postmaterial also influence the companies of the future, their organization and management. The book demonstrates a gradual transition from the rule-abiding company, the one adhering strictly to the organizational chart formally distributing tasks and responsibilities, to a far more interest-guided organization with a flatter hierarchy. In this type of organization, the story and values are what hold everything together, precisely as it is actually seen in most work groups - the ones feeling most passionately about solving the task at hand are the ones getting the work done and achieving results. The book calls this new form of organization "storytelling communities," the value driven organization. In marketing, there is already talk of "branding communities." They entail consumer involvement in the story; they are ambassadors contributing and participating in unfolding the narrative. Procter & Gamble have already established such communities. NGOs and political parties are other current examples of such storytelling communities held together by the story and by the values. Companies will gradually move in the same direction; not quickly, but surely. In time, core values and mission statements will chart the paths for employee behavior.

When the vast majority of company assets are no longer primarily of a material nature, but reside in the minds of customers as Brand Value and in employees as Intellectual Capital, there comes a need for new methods of calculating company assets. The book offers a fascinating example of this as we visit the new CPA in 2030.

Revolutions within the service sector

In the affluent countries, both agriculture and the manufacturing industries are already automatized to a degree that only a small part of the work force are employed here, typically 20 to 25 per cent. As shop floors become deserted and are taken over by the machines, present-day and future jobs will be found in the service industry, a full 70 to 80 per cent of them. However, with the advent of new technology, many of the service jobs can be automatized as well - and they will be; from cleaning, security, and information to waitering and cashiering. Everything that machines can do, they will do - because the price of technology will be lower than wages. Just as when the vacuum cleaner took over the chambermaid's job in genteel homes. For the service industry, there will be two paths to choose from - as exemplified by the strategies chosen by two Danish hotels:

* One hotel is automatized; it is only staffed two hours in the morning; patrons check in and out themselves.

* The other hotel has added vivid experience to the stay, in the form of design, individually appointed rooms. Soon, this trend will go further and offer themes with hotel staff acting out parts born from the theme story.

In time, many employees in the service sector will join the actors' guild. The service providers who do not clearly choose wither one strategy or the other, discount or experience, will face tough times, not tomorrow, but in just a few years.

There is, however, a revolution underway. Not the revolution driven by new technology and the experience economy, but by something even more innovative; i.e. by more and more people being willing to do something worthwhile for other reasons than profit. This is what is known as the C2C market, consumer-to-consumer; not business-to-business, not business-to-consumer, but consumer-to-consumer. Consumers communicate directly with each other, circumventing companies. Here, we are talking about phenomena like bloggers offering news and opinions, but above all, offering horizontal communication. The traditional printed and electronic media offer only hierarchical, top-down messages while bloggers are inclusive. Inviting dialogue. Most of them are not in it for the money and it is difficult to compete with someone offering something for nothing. Therefore, the traditional media will have to adapt quickly to offering dialogue and participation. Previously, consumers were content to stand outside watching others play; now they find it more thrilling to join in the fun themselves.

Not the entire C2C market is non-profit. eBay, with a $ 2 bill. annual turnover, is an online auction where customers deal directly with each other through the Internet. The implicit trust being there, Sotheby's and the other, traditional auctioneers have now got competition. The same applies to Microsoft to a certain degree when Linux offers its software up for free, or nearly so. Wikipedia is an encyclopaedia that offers free Internet access, written by professors and other worthies; it already boasts some 600,000 articles. You need not hesitate to use it; the information is generally reliable. Should an error creep in many are ready to correct it. We are witnessing two competing philosophies. On the one hand, the idea that talent only offers itself in very short supply, making it necessary that a select few enlighten the broad masses. On the other hand that talent abounds in all sorts of people; that we do not need a hierarchy of experts; we can do nicely on our own, thank you. We visit some of these exiting new C&C providers on our journey in time.

The international perspective

In 25 years, most of the planet's 8.4 billion inhabitants will reside in cities and if we extrapolate in a straight line form the trend in previous economic growth we can conclude that global affluence has risen by more than 50 per cent for most rich countries; the rich countries by approx. 60 per cent, the developing countries somewhat more, the poorest of Africa somewhat less. It makes sense to prolong a tendency that has been stable since 1950. It is probable, and it is interesting. At the same time international trade is expected to rise twice as quickly as wealth measured by GDP. Globalization remains a megatrend in the coming 25 years. Then, China will almost have gained in on Europe as far as material prosperity is concerned, while the USA is still by far the largest national economy; China being number two at best.

As far as the EU is concerned the forecast is high growth in peripheral areas and a somewhat more moderate growth in the old EU. We are talking about a catch-up effect that is expected to be decisive in the coming decade. The illustrious old European "growth banana" has passed its expiration date; instead, it will become "the blue portal;" a beautiful monochrome rainbow wreathing the EU countries. As part of our journey forward in time we also visit places like China, India, and St. Petersburg.

The home of the future

The home is the private space, our refuge. The number of people living together is expected to decline further as our total living space, our need for room increases. We are prepared to use substantial amounts of money on our dwellings regardless of the trend envisioning that we spend less and less time there. At least in Northern Europe total living space will increase to the extent that more and more high rise apartments will be joined together - presuming that the increase in living space will continue as it has in the past 25 years, which is likely.

Most countries have seen ever increasing divorce rates. This is a trend that is expected to be reversed in the coming quarter century; the reason being that the growing acceptance of human multiplicity will entail less demands of uniformity in marriage, less insistence that we must always agree on everything, have identical tastes, share the same attitudes. We permit variety in marriage; only love keeps people in lasting relationships. On our journey in time we visit a private home in the year 2030; it has become digitized; they have a FAB and there is ample room for both masculine and feminine touches in the dwelling.

The specialized sections

The above sections cover more general perspectives; the inspiration relevant to most companies today. The following sections, summarized in condensed form, are more specifically targeted at specific fields and lines of business.

Children, teaching and pedagogics

Teaching will also enter the experience economy. The principles of creative play complete with competition, chance, and imitation are exploited to the fullest. Similarly, we must expect that Howard Gardner's idea of the 7 types of intelligence will lead away from reliance on mathematical and logical skills in favor of a more balanced view of competences. In the experience economy we will need all 7 intelligence types and students will have to exploit them fully in most of the present century.

Health sectors in the future

The traditional health sector with the general hospital and the general practitioner are facing an immediate digital revolution which will replace humans with machines. Concurrently, we will see an internationalization of the market. Also, we will see a new market evolve: the market for positive health - you are healthy, yet desire a happier day-to-day existence or want to look prettier or feel younger. We must anticipate rapid growth in the areas of fitness, wellness, retreats as well as a comeback for the old-fashioned spa resorts.

Religion and spirituality

The European tendency is pointing towards religion becoming individualized and freed from the traditional power structures. That is the trend unveiled by attitude surveys; that increasing numbers are concerned with the crucial questions about the meaning of life, but that fewer and fewer people attend church services on a regular basis. Figures for the Nordic Countries show that 80 per cent feel spiritually inclined, yet a mere 10 to 12 per cent are regular church goers. We construct are own answers to the fundamental questions; we believe in ordering Ã la carte and frequently reject the fixed menu offered by the Church. This, as mentioned, is a tendency prevalent in Europe; less so in the U.S.

A futurist looks back

The final section is constructed as an interview with a futurist reviewing developments from 2005 to 2030; tying up the ends, pinpointing the most important drivers and their causes. The Danish edition of Magi of the Future consists of 228 pages, approximately 60,000 words; the text has 137 end notes and references.

The Danish edition of Magi of the Future is published by Børsens Forlag, November 2005.